The prison population, which is now about 14,000, will exceed 14,700 by late 2011, decline somewhat through mid-2012, then increase through 2019, according to the semi-annual Oregon Corrections Population Forecast, which the state Office of Economic Analysis released Thursday.
State forecasters expect the prison population to reach 16,000 in 2015. The community corrections populations are currently about 33,000, according to the report, and they will increase gradually over the next 10 years to 37,000.
Compared to the April 2009 forecast, this prison forecast was significantly lower due to the expected effects of HB 3508 (2009). That bill implemented several changes to reduce the prison population, including a temporary suspension of laws that set sentences for repeat property crime laws under Measure 57 (2008). Also, more inmates will receive reductions in their sentences for good behavior.
Other factors that affected the forecast include a recent increase in prison admissions for offenders who committed person-to-person crimes and slightly more prison releases than previously expected. The local control population forecast also declined significantly due to recent efforts by counties to reduce jail.
The forecast projects the populations of offenders supervised by the Oregon Department of Corrections, and estimates the number of inmates in the state prison system, as well as the number offenders on probation, parole, and post-prison supervision. It also estimates the number felony offenders serving sentences of 12 or fewer months in county jails.
The forecast is available at: